Nitish Kumar has done the best for Bihar in the given situation. But in democracy counting matters. And so is calculation. To begin with, see the calculation - 24th November counting is there and 25th November is the last day for the previous assembly! So, if by chance, Nitish is even few seats away from majority which can be managed with independents or so . . . central government will not allow him to do so by imposing president/ governor rule and how bad that can be, we have seen in Karnataka just few days ago.
Now after all the good work, Nitish has failed in this type of calculated move. After all Bihar is the most backward state of this country. Even states like Tamilnadu (leave alone Uttar Pradesh) do have caste equations balancing the politics. Specialy when there is no economic activity, social and emotional factors only remain there to influence the voting pattern. How will the importance of caste be reduced within 5 years in a state which has not seen development for last 40 years?
Nitish failed to understand that Yadav- Muslim combine of Laloo will not get dented in any condition, whatever olive branch he shows to Muslims. But the forward castes, who are very vibrant and concerned about whatever little they posses (the land) and their past (prestige) and have been the backbone of Nitish vote bank, will easily at least lose interest in him if not go against him if they are not in good humour. And thats what exactly Nitish created in the years after 2008. One after another starting from ignoring Lalan Singh, Batai Daari kanoon, insulting Narendra Modi, catalysing break of super 30 . . . thinking that these will make other castes/ groups/ religi0us groups happy . . . he made mistakes which ruined his party. It also effected his government performance in fact. The co- operation of the administrators (dominated by the upper caste) was missing after 2008. The result is that a large chunk of forward votes if not all or the majority, has either shifted towards other parties or they are least interested in continuation of his government because they have not found it so beneficial. The option of Laloo and Nitish sounded equaly good! Muslim - Yadav combine (making almost 40% in Bihar) is almost intact favoring Laloo! Nitish cant do anything with 2% of his own caste. Other caste people have little political entity . . . but at least this time when some one has played their card, they should come out in formidable number to keep nitish's party going! Will that happen?
Still one thing is sure that Laloo Prasad will not get majority even with the help of Rambilas Paswaan. But in case of a hung assembly (which is the only other possibility other than Nitish getting clear majority), congress will play the spoil sport. And what have they done? Last 30 years they have laughed at Bihar's cost and last 20 years they have only helped Laloo Prasad to laugh at the cost of Biharis. Because their central leadership doesn't want state congress leaders to come up. Even this time congress replaced the state chief Anil Sharma (a good potential leader) by a Muslim. Now we are yet to see how many muslims turn towards congress and my one time favourite a doctor turned politician and the scheduled caste face of the Bihar youth congress will come back to assembly from changed constituency or not!
In case of a hung assembly, by bargaining, if congress could put its government and make Laloo and Rambilas minister in centre - it will be a good fate for Bihar and Biahris. If it supports Laloo . . . That will spell a doom!
If after all this Nitish could manage a come back which I wish and most of the netizens believe but they never go out to vote, it will spell a big change in Indian politics. Dont forget that Bihar is the mother of Indian politics. Not only it has given birth to Gandhi, it has given birth to Rajendra Prasad, Jaya Prakash and . . . Mandal as well. And next in the series of earlier two will be Nitish Kumar! And the result will be permanent defeat of castism in this country. Second and more important and significant change will be in the economy of this country. Mind it whatever growth rate India is having is minus UP and Bihar! If these two states start growing with rate even 5%, whole India will have a growth rate more than 11%!
5 comments:
Manish Ji.. Some dissection on card !!! -:)
1. Castism has already spell its aura. As always MY equation is going to be intact in favor of Lalu with Paswan's MAHADALIT support while Nitish can expect polarisation of Forwards (some percipitation will happen based on candidates) and OBCs in his favor. Cant see any major shift from previous trends of voting based on castism.
2. Nitish ji had a strong governmnet at disposal and his performence is good only when its a relative benchmarking against Lalu's regimes. Lets call him a better adminstrator than Lalu, lets not label him with THE GUY Bihar needed. Or, the much hyped but lesser on creditibility, The Development Purush. One cant fare worse tahn Lalu and so hasn't Nitish..
3. Yes, I agree Nitish shall come back to power as Lalu's comeback will spoil the land forever.. Nedless to mention, coming back with bolster Lalu's arrogance that he can rule Bihar despite of whatever crap of a governamce he offers.
4. As far as Congress is concerned, neither do they have leadership nor any great revival on card if they get into government formation with any of the roles.. Their best bet for future is to sit in opposition unilaterally. Their support to Lalu will be a backstab to all the voters who will/have voted in their favor.
5. Nitish cant be sure of of victory and thats largely because of his actions/gestures which have miffed Forwards (at least Bhumihars who have been traditionally against Lalu) and his mindless trumpet blowing act about BIhar's development. You know Sir, unfortunately apart from relatively better roads and law & order, his government actually doesnt have anything to boast of. The trouble is our previous data on these aspects has been Zero so any revival sounds a north-ward growth.
6. Its a curse for us BIharis that our choices lie between such guys.. However we condemn other politicians, for example Tamilnadu's Jayalalitha & Karunanidhi, the state has seen phenomenal growth, I am sure you are a witness to that.
Anyways.. Lets hope for a better future casted by these elections.. And yes, I am worried as well.. Though not a verge of cardiac arrest... :P
Last 40 years congress has done nothing but backstabbing with the people of Hindi Heartland!
This election is not only going to decide fate of Bihar and future of Bihar to come but India as a whole.
If Nitish Kumar and BJP looses nobody in India and Bihar in particular will talk about development as a tangible political plank. And will cast away Development based politics as a failed experiment. I am keeping my finger crossed and waiting for the events to unfold. Will we witness a history in making.? Thats a million dollar question..
Lets not say that none will sell or buy the plank of developmnet based politics if Nitish loses here.. And truth is its again a caste based politics in Bihar, despite of some euphoric claims of voting for development. Probably Manmohan Singh govt or for that matter many state governments have won elections defying incumbancy factor as well as playing their development card. Trouble with Nitish is that he or his supporters have claimed far more than he has actually done!! Its kind of "India Shining".. His 5 years of governance has certainly done some good to the state but not to the extent what he claims. Else trust me he would have a perfect victory with or without caste factor.
I beg to differ on its impact on Indian Politics as there have been cases before; Chandrababu Naidu in AP losing elections or someone like Sheela Dixit winning elctions, having development factor common in both the campaigns.
I am interested in seeing Nitish's stand if at all there is a moment when Congress Says, I will support you but get away with BJP.. Pretty hypothetical but lip-smacking..
changes wil not be happen in min or hours,in tamilnadu road for growth,equality,education are started very early by dravidian movements.also evev caste equations are there,both dravidian parties reach each families invariable of caste to deliver the basic needs to all kind of people in the commmunity.nitsh just start to march for success.
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